Thursday, March 14, 2013

Usec Panlillio on industry (strategic) planning and effectuation planning

Ampitheater, APS building, Rockwell Center Makati PHL | March 13, 2013

                                   Picture of the prime mover driving the industries

"You can put up a memorial park in ARMM and it is going to be tax exempt"

Former Usec (he said he was undesxd during  his tenure) and BOI head Cristino Panlillo said that governnment prime overs aims to develop and revive manufacturing prowess in the PHL in order to cover the % growth rate of the population.  While PHL economy is 66% in the service sector, still he maintains that more value added/wealth will be created for PHL per capita growth (also noticed by Dr. Usui  -   low labor productivity) and only $2,300 per capita GDP (we could not keep up with rest of Asian countries.)

He said that there are four stages in the investment model he developed while Usec (two years ago)

1.  prime movers   --> 2. jobs, salaries profits --->3  increased purchasing power/investment  -->absorptive capacity.   (this is vs. the social nature of feeding the people with loans as in Greece, Italy, Spain and even in US.

2.  government policy:

      l. socio political :  peace and order,  industrial peace, CCIT, govt revenues, infrastructures.

      2.  macro economic:  exchange rate, peace and order, incentive,  supply chain avalaiblity.

      3.  micro  - smes programs  - CITEM garments. electronics, equipment sharing as in coir extrusion and vacuum packing which are expensive.

On the question of industry planning raised by a UP Economics participant, he obliquely answered (also in response to the trickle down effect), by giving an example:

l.  Philippines which became number in contact center worldwide  (was not planned);  it happenned because of the opportunity and the facilities, English speaking graduates.  The govt did not plan it that way (so that is effectuation/result of algorithm)

2. PHL is No 4 in shipbuilding.  Why because 80% of shipbuilding is welding.  Japanese senior welders get $4,000 per month.  Hanjin senior welders in Subic get P20,000 per month.  Just any high school grad or even elementary grads can be taught how to weld.

3. Tourism too allows unskilled, non college grads to do many things:   scuba diving instructor, boatman, hotel keepers,

This happen, not because of govt planning but because these are the available skills and resourcdes in the PHL

4.  PHL may soon be the world center for manfacture of printers.  Most printer manufacturers are here:  Toshiba, Canon, HP. Lexmark, Brother.  Why?  Because most the workers, and the suppliers of parts are here in the PHL

                                    We will be center of printer manufacturing in the world


                                 PHL is now the 4th largest shipbuilding country in the world

DTI Annual Report of 2011 

Dr Norio Usui of ADB asks AGSB masters to change mindset

Ampitheater, APS Building, Rockwell Center, Makati City PHL  | March 13, 2013



Dr. Usui of ADB repeatedly challenged the AGSB masteral candidates audience in the Opeman forum for reviving Manufacturing to change their mindsets about development and industrialization.  He challenged them to do a peat of the BPO. It was not an industry that did not exist 10 years ago, but now it brings in nearly $20 billion in trade to the PHL, and about a million jobs.  It does not have govt fiat or support except location of cyberzones in PEZA.  The mindset (entrepreneurial mindset) has something to do with it.

Think about the banana that sells for PHP 100 each, or fresh mangoes in a nice box that sells for USD l00?  Think about the opportunity here (the product comes from PHL) and there (the market for that high selling price is in NYC or Tokyo)

The businessman must not stick to the traditional knowledge  on economics and business as he pursues his business objectives.  For example, typically, he says that barriers to entry of foreign business in PHL is high power cost.  While this is true for steel smelting or copper refinery, this is not a major factor in other industries where power is minor CGS!

He went at great length to explain the product space theory of Hidalgo and compares PHL with Thailand at various periods in history.

I love this presentation -  it is a strong supporter/advocate of entrepreneurship

He also used the Lego of Development as a metaphor for his speech where the children are the countries, the bricks are the capabilities.  As per my text conversation with Dean Albert of AGSB, he said he liked best Dr. Usui's talk best

Athens Cruz  and JP Molina of Sentrep attended the forum

                                Where is the monkey? Thailand vs PHL in l975


                                Thailand in PHL in 2008 - almost at parity


                                 Entrepreneurship is an important aspect of Usui presentation


Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Top news for ProfJorge Entrep: The Story of the Way Big Data Shaped World War II


FromLinkedIn Today Thu, Mar 7, 2013 at 9:44 PM
 Top news for Jorge: The Story of the Way Big Data Shaped World War II


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