Wednesday, February 1, 2023

2023 promises to be a challenging year for businesses

Every generation needs a revolution - an entrepreneurial revolution









Difficult 2023 IMF

Its going to be challenging year 2023 for businesses. On the micro level, many businesses closed shop:   food outlet serving Ramen, coffee shops milk tea shops (hole in the wall type)  two big restaurants, bike shops   Many buko vendors and fruit vendors along Manila East road   



At the Macro level, there seems to be huge growth of 7.6% in 2022, but after discounting the inflation rate of 4%, we are left with nominal 3.6% not something to crow about   And if we compare the numbers to pre pandemic numbers, we were at the same level     Many big establishments are permanently closing   Even our airlines are heavily indebted  and could face financial downfall 
A slower growth, if any is expected in 2023   

A building supplier who went into airport business whose plant is nearby is reported to have difficulty meeting its payroll

The inflation, the high interest rate at US which drives down the Peso value vs the dollar, the high energy costs, the Ukaraine war, the China covid wildfire spread do not mean well for Philippine economy..

WE MUST WORK HARDER BE MORE INNOVATIVE BE MORE entrepreneurial    The telecon, the energy food too  travel sectors seem robust and steady.   Tourism,..?    The glamping bike tourism is on the way down.  Many sites priced themselves out of the market   We must engage in cost reduction, protecting our liquidity, focussing on sales and collection

We must be open to new opportunities,  and seek and screen them   All ready there are two projects that I must evaluate.  And trips to the provinces are plenty.  We are sewing one up and in the contract signing stage.  

Next week I will have a meeting with Puerto Princesa business men and we wil discuss possible projects

Friday, January 20, 2023

Greensill, a good business idea executed incorrectly - a fraudster?

Every generation needs a revolution - an entrepreneurial revolution

Started as a discounting of receivable business model   The notes were packaged as securities
But some of these invoices do not exist  

Do you rest your confidence in crypto?

Every generation needs a revolution - an entrepreneurial revolution

I am more of a conservative type  I do not We invest in stuff that can grow and are scalable.   We invest in stocks because they can increase in value:   revenues and profitability and have functional values for society as food medicine and shelter.   

But crypto which is supposed to be limited in number ony 20 m, does not fulfill any of that     It can not be a means of paying on line;   (G cash is more practical)   

Hence we see FTX a company of young kids, engaged in a different kind of relationship, based in Bahamas being able to dupe countless companies of their billions

Hence collapse of FTX and other bankruptcies that are crypto related do not come as surprise.   A fellow prof tried to convince me to invest in China crypto.   Buffet is against crypto, central banks are against crypto   

Are you in favor of crypto?