Sunday, May 26, 2024

What is the direction of trends?

Every generation needs a revolution - an entrepreneurial revolution

Those who correctly guessed the direction of the industry made it big.

Apple, Steve Jobs correctly predicted that the cellphone is going to be the main platform for the homes.  Not TV, not the PC.  So Dell not matter how hard it tries, will not be able to push production of PC to exceed Apple.  Nokia failed because it relied so much on Symbian OS and missed the IOS and the Android OS.  The TV manufacturers are struggling.   Toshiba, Sharp and Panasonic saw failures of TV
manufacturing.  The  appliance manufacturers missed the trend

The current markets in turmoil are:

        Cars energy:     Batteries  fuel cells?  Hybrid.  My guess is hydrogen fuel  (fuel cell)

        RE -  solar, wind?  Or any new technology? or wave.   Hybrid:   solar and wind


Investing in businesses that serve everyday needs - in cash

Every generation needs a revolution - an entrepreneurial revolution

Look at the Philippines tycoons.  What are their businesses?   The wealthiest are in basic necessities:
water, telecons, tollways, electricity, airports, infrastructures

That is the problem:   they have monopolized the business and the large cap ex excludes everybody else.

One time I joined a roadshow on govt offices for energy.  I talked to some Japanese keiretsu representatives.  And they said that they will consider anything that is basic necessity as an investment worth looking into:   food like - galunggong shrimp

You do not need to be rocket scientist to find out about attractive business.

Scalability - the key to becoming wealthy

Every generation needs a revolution - an entrepreneurial revolution

I have seen some businesses of my progeny.  They invest in rental properties.    I doubt whether they can be wealthy doing this.

This reminds me of a story about a story of a Chinese businessman in Central Luzon whose initial business was selling office supplies.   He was selling to a govt office engaged in lending to residential homes.  So he bought and sold residential units one at a time.  Someone advised him he would not get rich that way.  The only way to be wealthy as a realtor is to develop large residential subdivision.  Which he
did 

This similar to inventions that can be patented or whose production can be controlled.  A potato farmer became rich by inventing a machine that peels potatoes by the millions.

I saw Australian businessman building hundreds of houses.  Only workers?  Himself and a secretary.  Everything else is contracted out

Can you think of scalable business?